For over a decade, I’ve published my forecast of the top 10 workplace trends that will impact how we work and live for the upcoming year. What do I see coming in 2024?
Well, there’s clearly some economic uncertainty as we head into 2024, and we’ll see this reflected in the workplace as well. We’ll also see continued friction between organizations and employees on issues ranging from work arrangements, wages, climate change, artificial intelligence, employee monitoring, and more.
At the same time, employers will step up their support for their workforce in a variety of ways, such as by providing better benefits for parents, employees with student loans, or workers struggling with their health. Some companies may even consider measures like a shortened work week to alleviate employee burnout.
Let’s examine all of these trends in more detail:
1. Employers and employees will strike a deal on hybrid work schedules
According to one study, a whopping 80% of bosses regret their initial return-to-office decisions. That’s why after several years of attempting to get people back at their desks, in 2024 we’ll see many companies come to a compromise with their employees by offering hybrid work arrangements.
New research from Gallup finds that 8 out of 10 chief human resources officers (CHROs) from Fortune 500 companies have no plans to decrease remote work flexibility in the upcoming year. This aligns with employee expectations as well: 9 out of 10 remote-capable employees prefer some remote work flexibility, with the majority preferring hybrid work.
Most studies have found that either two or three days in the office is the optimal hybrid working arrangement for culture and performance. And businesses would be wise to let employees keep some degree of flexibility, since my company’s research with Deloitte found that 2 out of 3 hybrid workers would leave their organization if they were required to go into the office full-time.
2. Artificial intelligence — especially generative AI — will become ubiquitous in the workplace
While AI has been around for decades, the release of ChatGPT in November 2022 has resulted in major steps forward, including expanded use cases in the workplace. McKinsey notes that although previous waves of AI mostly affected physical work activities, gen AI is likely to have the biggest impact on knowledge work. This includes professionals in fields such as education, law, technology, and the arts.
For example, gen AI tools can already create most types of written, image, video, audio, and coded content. However, while 90% of leaders think their organization should be using gen AI or machine learning “often” or “almost always,” 60% said their organization rarely or never does this. In 2024, it’s likely we’ll see this gap close as employers and workers gain more confidence in AI.
And it’s not just entry-level or junior employees who will feel the impact of AI. My company’s recent study with edX for Business found that workers at every level of the organization will be affected — including the C-suite. In fact, 49% of the executives we surveyed said “most” or “all” of their job could be completely replaced by AI.
3. Workers will continue to be unhappy and burned out, with serious repercussions on their well-being
Gallup recently reported that the majority of the world’s employees (around 6 out of 10) are quiet quitting — that is, they’re actively disengaged at work.
This could be why in a study from my company and Deloitte, around one-quarter of workers reported that their physical and mental health worsened last year (23% and 25%, respectively). And unfortunately, it’s likely that this trend will continue in 2024. According to the Business Group on Health, 77% of large employers reported an increase in their workforce’s mental health needs this year and another 16% anticipate one in the future.
With this in mind, employers will be acutely focused on improving access to mental health services next year, and they’ll also need to take a hard look at their culture — especially when it comes to eliminating toxic workplace behaviors. Great Place to Work notes that companies who have successfully overcome a toxic environment have focused on accepting accountability, taking action to address the issues at-hand, and being more communicative with employees.
4. Health benefit costs will rise, putting more financial pressure on employers and employees
According to Mercer, high inflation, labor shortages, and other developments in the healthcare industry last year will have ripple effects on benefit costs in 2024. To temper cost growth, one strategy we’ll see in 2024 is an increased focus on improving patient outcomes. For employers, this could mean offering higher-quality care as well as more options for preventive care.
A Mercer survey conducted earlier this year identified several other strategies employers are either already using or considering using to slow health cost growth in 2024 — without shifting cost to employees. These include offering programs to better manage specific health conditions (85%), curbing the costs of specialty prescription drugs (83%), focusing on virtual care offerings (66%), and providing navigation or advocacy services (48%).
5. Working parents and women will drop out of the workforce due to a lack of childcare support
On September 30, $24 billion in federal funding for daycare providers across the United States came to an end. While some providers are raising prices to stay afloat, others may simply be forced to close. In fact, The Century Foundation estimates that more than 70,000 U.S. childcare providers will close in the coming months — roughly one-third of those supported by the funding.
Some 3.2 million children could lose their spots, which will leave many parents — especially women — scrambling for childcare options. In a survey from Civic Science, 51% of U.S. working mothers said it’s likely they’ll leave the workforce if they lose childcare in the coming months, compared with 39% of working fathers.
To avoid a mass exodus of women, who remain highly ambitious at work, in 2024 we may see some employers reconsider their return-to-office plans or provide additional support for parents.
6. Student debt benefits will become more important as loan repayments resume
After a three-year pause that had provided relief to nearly 44 million borrowers in the U.S., student loan repayments resumed in October. Days after payments restarted, U.S. president Joe Biden canceled another $9 billion in student loan debt for 125,000 borrowers. But the vast majority of borrowers will soon be forced to reckon with the crushing burden of student debt.
Unfortunately, workers’ financial stress can have significant repercussions for employers. In a study my company conducted in partnership with BrightPlan, we found that on average employees are experiencing a productivity loss of eight hours a week — or one full workday! — due to their financial stress. This is costing U.S. businesses potentially $200 billion annually in lost productivity and engagement.
For employers, there’s a clear opportunity to support people’s financial well-being and ensure employees can stay focused at work. While SHRM reports that only 8% of U.S. employers currently provide student loan repayments for employees, in 2024 I’d expect that number to rise substantially. Already, companies like Aetna, Google, SoFi, and others offer these benefits for their workers.
7. Labor will continue to gain strength through union strikes
Across the U.S., a tight labor market and inflation have led to contract negotiations, strikes, and walkouts in numerous industries this year. According to BLS data, through August nearly 309,700 workers have been involved in work stoppages, which means 2023 will likely become the busiest year for strikes since 2019.
Of course, we’ve all heard of The United Auto Workers strike against Detroit automakers, which has spread to dozens of facilities nationwide. There was also the recent Hollywood writers’ strike, as well as negotiations in Las Vegas to boost wages for hospitality workers. And in October, more than 75,000 Kaiser Permanente workers walked off the job in the largest ever strike in the U.S. healthcare field, ultimately leading to historic raises for workers.
In 2024, we will absolutely see more strikes and walkouts. In the northeast United States, transit workers are threatening walkouts, strikes, and other job actions that would disrupt the commutes for thousands of people next year. And the U.S. auto workers’ union president has said strikes will continue in a bid for better offers from companies.
8. Employers will experiment with a shorter workweek as employees demand more flexibility
Although the idea of a shorter work week is nothing new, in 2024 we’ll see this approach gain traction as employees continue to struggle with burnout and an overall poor state of health. According to one study, 20% of U.S. employers already have a four-day workweek, and another 41% plan to implement a four-day week, at least on a trial basis.
So far, the research on this has shown only positive results for companies and employees. For example, trials from 4 Day Week Global have proved to be a resounding success, with workers reporting less burnout, improved health, and more job satisfaction. In the trials, employees were given a paid day off each week — but the same workload — to see whether they could work more effectively. After six months, participants had cut their average work time to 34 hours a week, and after 12 months they’d reduced it to 33 hours a week.
It’s worth noting that advancements in AI may accelerate the adoption of a shorter work week next year, as a growing number of businesses are allowing their employees to use AI to complete job tasks. For now, however, most organizations are helping their team members achieve greater efficiency by eliminating unnecessary meetings, encouraging workers to set aside blocks of time for focused work, and automating or outsourcing basic tasks.
9. Climate change will continue to impact employee well-being and productivity, putting more pressure on companies to be part of the solution
Record-high temperatures, unprecedented precipitation, and extreme weather events have become a regular occurrence. While individuals certainly play a role in climate change, the reality is that just 100 global companies were responsible for 71% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions over the past three decades. Now, some major companies face growing consumer, investor, and regulatory demands to reduce carbon emissions, with ripple effects on their suppliers.
In fact, in 2024 we’ll see many organizations step up their efforts to slow climate change and support the health of their people. To ensure worker safety, others will take steps like adjusting employees’ work schedules to avoid the hottest parts of the day or allowing them to work remotely (which can more than halve an employee’s carbon footprint).
In some areas of the world, companies may soon have no choice but to take action. EU companies must already comply with mandatory ESG disclosure requirements, but organizations are facing new obligations to report their impact on nature under the bloc’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive. What’s more, at least 10,000 foreign companies will also be affected by the EU’s Sustainability Rules.
10. Workforce surveillance and monitoring will be adopted to ensure hybrid workers return to the office — and employees will push back
It’s estimated that 90% of companies will return to the office at least part of the time by the end of 2024. But even though employees and companies agree that a hybrid model is the best way forward, they don’t always see eye to eye when it comes to how many days workers should spend in the office. Some companies, to ensure that employees are putting in the required time in the office, have turned to measures such as checking badge data.
Hybrid and remote employees should also expect an increase in monitoring when they’re at home. By one estimate, 96% of remote companies use some kind of employee monitoring software, and 37% use live camera feeds. However, employers will need to be cautious about this, since 7 in 10 have had employees quit because they did not want to be monitored. And leaders aren’t completely on-board either; for example, 73% of IT managers say they feel uneasy about employee-monitoring software.
Thanks for reading — be sure to join the conversation on LinkedIn and let me know your thoughts on the 2024 workplace trends!
This post was originally published in the Workplace Intelligence Newsletter.
Dan Schawbel is a New York Times best-selling author and managing partner of Workplace Intelligence. Dan has spent his career researching and advising on workplace and career success. He’s the author of three career books: Back to Human, Promote Yourself, and Me 2.0. Dan has conducted dozens of research studies and worked with major brands including Oracle, WeWork, American Express, Amazon, Facebook, and Coca-Cola. In addition, Dan has written for publications such as TIME, Forbes, the Harvard Business Review, The Economist, and the World Economic Forum. He currently publishes the LinkedIn Workplace Intelligence Newsletter and hosts the 5 Questions podcast with guests that have included Richard Branson, Natalie Portman, Stacey Abrams, and Marcus Lemonis.
