Anyone who works in HR knows we’ve been on a bumpy ride over the last few years.
We’ve endured the COVID-19 pandemic, the Great Resignation, surging demand for workers, social justice flashpoints, war and conflict, followed by economic instability and layoffs. HR budgets and headcounts have been cut, even as employers often expect us to do the same amount of work.
Generative AI (GAI) burst on the scene promising to transform the economy by automating work tasks, improving productivity, and generating content and ideas. HR has had to help employers and employees navigate these changes and it hasn’t been easy, to say the least.
Where do we go from here? What will 2024 look like? As I’ve done in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, I’m once again offering my predictions on how HR will look different in the year ahead.
1. Gen AI will go mainstream
We’ve been talking about generative AI years, but the consumer-grade applications that gained momentum last year have accelerated like nothing we’ve seen since the early days of social media. Now companies will start deploying GAI across the enterprise, which will have significant implications for HR.
We’re going to see a substantial impact on our workforce. Employers will increasingly seek workers with AI skills. It’s quickly emerging as a must-have skill for many roles. As GAI starts to automate tasks, some roles will require upskilling, while others will no longer be needed.
Gen AI will present significant advantages for companies as well as risks. In HR, I’m very bullish on the potential of GAI to elevate our impact on the business. For instance, a recruiter can take a job description, nonconfidential hiring notes, job profile data, and job-calibrated resumes that a hiring manager feels would be a great fit for the role. They can input that into a generative AI tool and ask it to create an interview question guide, and that will help uncover the right candidates for these types of roles. This can be done in minutes.
But I also think some companies will rely too much on GAI, to the detriment of their business. Organizations are in danger of outsourcing aspects of human work to AI without thoughtfully understanding the potential risks — such as data security risks, hallucination and misinformation risks, and the risk that AI will generate biased outcomes — of doing so. Companies that aren’t careful will open themselves up to lawsuits over such matters as copyright infringement and violation of privacy rights.
The bottom line: Generative AI can give you a running start on almost anything you’re working on. And that’s a huge efficiency driver for HR as well as for employers overall. But we will have to work very closely with our legal counsels to avoid risks. We must be savvy about how we’re using Gen AI, and not take the answers it provides as final.
It’s essential that HR is in the room and helping steer these AI policies and programs.
2. Layoffs become normalized
I wish this wasn’t the case, but it’s becoming more clear that we’re entering a new stage of work where layoffs will continue to be a common part of business operations.
A quick-hit fix for companies to polish their P&L and meet their earnings.
As the stigma and employer brand hits that used to accompany layoffs fade, employees must also adapt.
Employees and job seekers, particularly in tech, must understand that the rules and expectations of employment have changed.
If you want a resilient career today, you must prioritize your own growth in addition to your employer’s.
With a workforce becoming more fluid, smart companies will take a page out of Reid Hoffman’s book, The Alliance, and create more tour-of-duty models of employment.
Look to the new Mastery model from Shopify as an example to emulate.
3. The pendulum is swinging toward employers
During the days of the Great Resignation, when millions of workers were voluntarily leaving their jobs, employers were bending over backwards to keep them from walking out the door. Companies did everything from boosting compensation to doling out perks like free meals, laundry service, and yoga classes.
Given the current economic downshift, there will be a rebalancing of power in favor of employers. That means we’ll likely see a pullback on perks and policies aimed at improving employee experience.
One concession to workers, however, isn’t going away: Flex work.
Yes, many employers have issued return-to-office mandates over the past year. But we will likely see many companies maintain hybrid models that allow employees to work from home some days.
4. HR will face DEI pushback
The challenges facing diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) are real. Over the past year, the uncertain economy led companies to scale back their diversity programs and cut DEI staffers. Some organizations that pledged to diversify their workforces and scaled up their DEI teams after the murder of George Floyd in 2020 are moving in the opposite direction. In some cases, entire DEI teams are being cut.
The view that DEI efforts are nice-to-have programs to ebb and flow with economic conditions, rather than systemic efforts that should be integrated across the people systems, demonstrates a frustrating lack of understanding by these companies of the business value of diversity.
As HR practitioners, we have to face the fact that we might not have the same budgets, resources, and even executive support we’ve had over the past several years. However, this is not the time to backtrack. This is the time for HR to double down despite the headwinds.
We’ll need to be more resourceful to help our organizations continue to diversify their workforces and create inclusive environments where everyone can thrive.
5. HR practitioners will become more “selfish”
HR practitioners need to be more selfish — but not in the classic sense. Considering points two and three, “selfish” means viewing our own growth and improvement — in addition to the specific impact of our work and role.
Whatever your role is in HR, you can’t ignore the precarious nature of jobs these days. Companies long seen as stable places to work are having layoffs. That’s creating uncertainty for everyone.
In the face of that uncertainty, there is one person you can count on — you.
It’s time to be selfish, to invest in yourself. Develop business acumen and skills. Become a better visual communicator. Experiment with custom GPTs to support your work.
HR practitioners are spread incredibly thin, but it’s still important to take time out of your day to learn new skills and grow your network. This “selfishness” benefits you and your employer. The more you learn and grow, the more your current and future employer will benefit.
Even more important, you will set yourself up for a more resilient future.
That’s a wrap for this year’s look ahead. And, yes, I realize it’s March. Please see points one through five for my excuse.
Hang in there, friends.
Lars Schmidt is the founder of Amplify, a firm that helps companies and HR leaders navigate the new world of work through HR executive search and the Amplify Academy leadership development program.
